Improving pre-emptive access to the kidney transplant waiting list between 2017 and 2021: assessment of a regional program in Aquitaine / Amélioration de l'accès préemptif à la liste d'attente de transplantation rénale entre 2017 et 2021 : bilan d'un programme régional en Aquitaine.

Introduction: Pre-emptive access to the kidney transplant (KT) waiting list remains limited in France, with only 3.9% of patients on pre-emptive KT and 5.6% of patients registered at the time of initiation of dialysis. A similar trend was observed in Aquitaine. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a regional program in terms of access to the waiting list for patients initiating a kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Methods: We included all patients assessed for registration on the list between 2017 and 2020, 2017 being the reference year and 2018 the beginning of the program. Using the CRISTAL and REIN registries, we assessed changes in the number of patients on the list at the time of initiation of dialysis or transplantation. Results: The number of new assessed candidates increased gradually each year from 255 in 2017 to 352 in 2020 (+38%). The number of patients on the list sharply increased in 2018 from 229 in 2017 to 319 in 2018 (+39.3%) and then remained stable. At the initiation of KRT, the proportion of patients registered on the waiting list increased gradually from 7.1% in 2017 to 18.2% in 2020. The proportion of pre-emptive KT remained stable between 2017 and 2021 (around 7%) with a decrease in 2020 (4.6%). Approximately 60% of patients had a contraindication to transplantation throughout the study. Conclusion: This study showed that a regional program aimed at providing better information to healthcare professionals and patients and encouraging rapid assessment of transplant candidates could increase the rate of pre-emptive registration on the KT waiting list for eligible patients over 4 years.

Introduction: L'accès préemptif à la liste d'attente de transplantation rénale (TR) reste limité en France, avec seulement 3,9 % de TR préemptives et 5,6 % de patients inscrits lors de l'initiation de la dialyse. Une tendance similaire était observée en Aquitaine. L'objectif de cette étude était d'évaluer l'impact d'un programme régional en termes d'accès à la liste d'attente chez les patients débutant un traitement de suppléance. Méthodes: Nous avons inclus l'ensemble des patients évalués pour une inscription sur liste entre 2017 et 2020, 2017 étant l'année de référence et 2018 l'année de début du programme régional. Nous avons évalué de façon annuelle, grâce aux registres CRISTAL et REIN, l'évolution du nombre de patients inscrits sur liste lors de l'initiation du traitement de suppléance par dialyse ou transplantation. Résultats: Le nombre de nouveaux candidats évalués a augmenté graduellement chaque année, passant de 255 en 2017 à 352 en 2020 (+ 38 %). Le nombre de patients inscrits sur la liste a fortement augmenté en 2018 passant de 229 en 2017 à 319 en 2018 (+39,3 %), puis est resté stable. À l'initiation du traitement de suppléance, la proportion de patients inscrits a augmenté graduellement passant de 7,1 % en 2017 à 18,2 % en 2020. La proportion de TR préemptive est restée stable entre 2017 et 2021 (environ 7 %) avec une baisse en 2020 (4,6 %). Environ 60 % des patients présentaient une contre-­indication à la transplantation tout au long de cette étude. Conclusion: Cette étude a montré qu'un programme régional visant à mieux informer les professionnels de santé et les patients et favorisant l'évaluation rapide des candidats à la greffe permet d'augmenter en 4 ans le taux d'inscription préemptive sur liste d'attente de TR chez les patients éligibles.

Haemoglobin trajectories in chronic kidney disease and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: The trajectories of haemoglobin in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have been poorly described. In such patients, we aimed to identify typical haemoglobin trajectory profiles and estimate their risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: We used 5-year longitudinal data from the CKD-REIN cohort patients with moderate to severe CKD enrolled from 40 nationally representative nephrology clinics in France. A joint latent class model was used to estimate, in different classes of haemoglobin trajectory, the competing risks of (i) MACE + defined as the first event among cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke or hospitalization for acute heart failure, (ii) initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and (iii) non-cardiovascular death. RESULTS: During the follow-up, we gathered 33 874 haemoglobin measurements from 3011 subjects (median, 10 per patient). We identified five distinct haemoglobin trajectory profiles. The predominant profile (n = 1885, 62.6%) showed an overall stable trajectory and low risks of events. The four other profiles had nonlinear declining trajectories: early strong decline (n = 257, 8.5%), late strong decline (n = 75, 2.5%), early moderate decline (n = 356, 11.8%) and late moderate decline (n = 438, 14.6%). The four profiles had different risks of MACE, while the risks of KRT and non-cardiovascular death consistently increased from the haemoglobin decline. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that two-thirds of patients had a stable haemoglobin trajectory and low risks of adverse events. The other third had a nonlinear trajectory declining at different rates, with increased risks of events. Better attention should be paid to dynamic changes of haemoglobin in CKD.

Arteriovenous access creation and hazards of hospitalization and death in patients starting hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests overestimation of benefits associated with arteriovenous (AV) fistula versus graft in certain populations. We assessed hazards of all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization and death associated with AV access type in patients who started hemodialysis with a catheter in France, overall and by subgroups of age, sex, and comorbidities. METHODS: From the REIN Registry, we included patients who initiated hemodialysis with a catheter from 2010 through 2018, and identified first-created fistula or graft through the French national health-administrative database. We used joint frailty models to deal with recurrent hospitalizations and potential informative censoring by death, and inverse probability weighting to account for confounding. RESULTS: From the 18 800 patients included (mean age 68 ± 15 years, 35% women), 5% underwent AV graft creation first. Weighted hazard ratio (wHR) of all-cause hospitalization associated with graft was 1.08 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.15), that of vascular access-related hospitalization was 1.43 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.55), and those of cardiovascular- and infection-related hospitalizations were 1.14 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.26) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.28), respectively. Results were consistent for most subgroups, except that the highest hazard of all-cause, cardiovascular-, and infection- related hospitalizations with graft was blunted in patients with comorbidities (i.e. diabetes, wHR 1.01, 95% CI 0.93 -1.10; 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.26; and 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.12, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients starting hemodialysis with a catheter, AV graft creation is associated with increased hazard of vascular access-related hospitalizations compared to fistula. This may not be the case for death or other causes of hospitalization.

Association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with retinal neurodegeneration: the prospective Alienor study.

Chronic exposure to air pollution may have adverse effects on neurodegenerative diseases. Glaucoma, the second leading cause of blindness worldwide, is a neurodegenerative disease of the optic nerve, characterized by progressive thinning of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL). We investigated the relationship of air pollution exposure with longitudinal changes of RNFL thickness in the Alienor study, a population-based cohort of residents of Bordeaux, France, aged 75 years or more. Peripapillary RNFL thickness was measured using optical coherence tomography imaging every 2 years from 2009 to 2020. Measurements were acquired and reviewed by specially trained technicians to control quality. Air pollution exposure (particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) was estimated at the participants' geocoded residential address using land-use regression models. For each pollutant, the 10-year average of past exposure at first RNFL thickness measurement was estimated. Associations of air pollution exposure with RNFL thickness longitudinal changes were assessed using linear mixed models adjusted for potential confounders, allowing for intra-eye and intra-individual correlation (repeated measurements). The study included 683 participants with at least one RNFL thickness measurement (62% female, mean age 82 years). The average RNFL was 90 µm (SD:14.4) at baseline. Exposure to higher levels of PM2.5 and BC in the previous 10 years was significantly associated with a faster RNFL thinning during the 11-year follow-up (-0.28 µm/year (95% confidence interval (CI) [-0.44;-0.13]) and -0.26 µm/year (95% CI [-0.40;-0.12]) per interquartile range increment; p < 0.001 for both). The size of the effect was similar to one year of age in the fitted model (-0.36 µm/year). No statistically significant associations were found with NO2 in the main models. This study evidenced a strong association of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter with retinal neurodegeneration, at air pollution levels below the current recommended thresholds in Europe.

Social determinants of inadequate prenatal care utilization in sheltered homeless mothers in the Greater Paris area in France.

Background: Sheltered homeless families suffer from deleterious living conditions such as housing instability (i.e., moving from one shelter to another) that could be an additional barrier to healthcare utilization. Few studies have specifically examined perinatal health in homeless mothers and their utilization of prenatal healthcare. This study aimed to identify social determinants such as living conditions (i.e., housing instability) associated with inadequate prenatal care utilization (PCU) in sheltered homeless mothers in the Greater Paris area in France. Methods: The homeless children and families cross-sectional survey [ENFAMS: (Enfants et familles sans logement)] was performed on a random representative sample of homeless families living in shelters in the greater Paris area in 2013. Following French guidelines, PCU was deemed inadequate if one or more of the following criteria was met: attending fewer than 50% of recommended prenatal visits, PCU initiation after the first trimester of pregnancy, and fewer than three ultrasounds during the entire pregnancy. Families were interviewed in 17 languages by trained peer interviewers in face-to-face interviews. Structural equation modeling was used to identify factors associated with inadequate PCU and to estimate correlations between them. Results: This study analyzed data on 121 homeless sheltered mothers who had at least one child less than one year old. They were socially disadvantaged and most were born outside France. One in five (19.3%) had inadequate PCU. Associated factors were socio-demographic characteristics (young age, primiparous), health status (dissatisfaction with self-perceived general health), and living conditions (housing instability in the second and third trimesters). Conclusion: It is essential to reduce housing instability to help sheltered mothers to benefit from social, territorial and medical support and healthcare utilization. Housing stability for pregnant sheltered homeless mothers should be a priority to ensure better PCU and guarantee the newborn's health as much as possible.

Longitudinal uric acid has nonlinear association with kidney failure and mortality in chronic kidney disease.

We investigated the shape of the relationship between longitudinal uric acid (UA) and the hazard of kidney failure and death in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, and attempted to identify thresholds associated with increased hazards. We included CKD stage 3-5 patients from the CKD-REIN cohort with one serum UA measurement at cohort entry. We used cause-specific multivariate Cox models including a spline function of current values of UA (cUA), estimated from a separate linear mixed model. We followed 2781 patients (66% men, median age, 69 years) for a median of 3.2 years with a median of five longitudinal UA measures per patient. The hazard of kidney failure increased with increasing cUA, with a plateau between 6 and 10 mg/dl and a sharp increase above 11 mg/dl. The hazard of death had a U-shape relationship with cUA, with a hazard twice higher for 3 or 11 mg/dl, compared to 5 mg/dl. In CKD patients, our results indicate that UA above 10 mg/dl is a strong risk marker for kidney failure and death and that low UA levels below 5 mg/dl are associated with death before kidney failure.

Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide air pollution and breast cancer risk: A nested case-control within the French E3N cohort study.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an important air pollutant due to its adverse effects on human health. Yet, current evidence on the association between NO2 and the risk of breast cancer lacks consistency. In this study, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to NO2 and breast cancer risk in the French E3N cohort study. Association of breast cancer risk with NO2 exposure was assessed in a nested case-control study within the French E3N cohort including 5222 breast cancer cases identified over the 1990-2011 follow-up period and 5222 matched controls. Annual mean concentrations of NO2 at participants' residential addresses for each year from recruitment 1990 through 2011, were estimated using a land use regression (LUR) model. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Additional analyses were performed using NO2 concentrations estimated by CHIMERE, a chemistry transport model. Overall, the mean NO2 exposure was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. In all women, for each interquartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 levels (LUR: 17.8 µg/m3), the OR of the model adjusted for confounders was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.18). The corresponding OR in the fully adjusted model (additionally adjusted for established breast cancer risk factors) was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.98-1.15). By menopausal status, results for postmenopausal women were comparable to those for all women, while no association was observed among premenopausal women. By hormone receptor status, the OR of estrogen receptor positive breast cancer = 1.07 (95% CI: 0.97-1.19) in the fully adjusted model. Additional analyses using the CHIMERE model showed slight differences in ORs estimates. The results of this study indicate an increased risk of breast cancer associated with long-term exposure to NO2 air pollution. Observing comparable effects of NO2 exposure estimated by two different models, reinforces these findings.

Impact of the Kidney Transplantation Moratorium in France Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cohort-based Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in worldwide kidney transplantation (KT) moratoriums. The impacts of these moratoriums on the life expectancy of KT candidates remain unclear. METHODS: We simulated the evolution of several French candidate populations for KT using a multistate semi-Markovian approach and according to moratorium durations ranging from 0 to 24 mo. The transition rates were modeled from the 63 927 French patients who began dialysis or were registered on the waiting list for KT between 2011 and 2019. RESULTS: Among the 8350 patients active on the waiting list at the time of the French KT moratorium decided on March 16, 2020, for 2.5 mo, we predicted 4.0 additional months (confidence interval [CI], 2.8-5.0) on the waiting list and 42 additional deaths (CI, -70 to 150) up to March 16, 2030, compared with the scenario without moratorium. In this population, we reported a significant impact for a 9-mo moratorium duration: 135 attributable deaths (CI, 31-257) up to March 16, 2030. Patients who became active on the list after March 2020 were less impacted; there was a significant impact for an 18-mo moratorium (175 additional deaths [CI, 21-359]) in the 10 862 prevalent end-stage renal disease patients on March 16, 2020 and for a 24-mo moratorium (189 additional deaths [CI, 10-367]) in the 16 355 incident end-stage renal disease patients after this date. CONCLUSION: The temporary moratorium of KT during a COVID-19 peak represents a sustainable decision to free up hospitals' resources if the moratorium does not exceed a prolonged period.

Five-Year Symptom Trajectories in Nondialysis-Dependent CKD Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Late stages of CKD are characterized by significant symptom burden. This study aimed to identify subgroups within the 5-year trajectories of symptom evolution in patients with CKD and to describe associated patient characteristics and outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Among 2787 participants (66% men) with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 enrolled in the CKD-Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (CKD-REIN) cohort study from July 2013 to May 2016, we assessed symptoms annually using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-36 (KDQOL-36) questionnaire until December 2020. A total of 9121 measures were reported over follow-up; all participants had symptoms scored for at least one time point. We used a joint latent class-mixed model to distinguish profiles of symptom trajectories. RESULTS: Patient mean age (±SD) at baseline was 67±13 years, and mean eGFR was 33±13 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The prevalence of each symptom ranged from 24% (chest pain) to 83% (fatigue), and 98% of participants reported at least one symptom. After a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.3 (3.4-6.0) years, 690 participants initiated KRT, and 490 died before KRT. We identified two profiles of symptom trajectories: a "worse symptom score and worsening trajectory" in 31% of participants, characterized by a low initial symptom score that worsened more than ten points over time, and a "better symptom score and stable trajectory" in 69% of participants, characterized by a high initial score that remained stable. Participants in the worse symptom score and worsening trajectory group had more risk factors for CKD progression at baseline, worse quality of life, and a higher risk of KRT and death before KRT than other participants. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant worsening of symptoms in about one third of the participants, whereas the majority reported low symptom severity throughout the study.

Social Deprivation Is Associated With Lower Access to Pre-emptive Kidney Transplantation and More Urgent-Start Dialysis in the Pediatric Population.

Introduction: Socioeconomic status (SES) is recognized as an important determinant of kidney health. We aimed to evaluate the association of social deprivation with different indicators at kidney replacement therapy (KRT) initiation in the French pediatric metropolitan population. Methods: All patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) who started KRT before 20 years old in France between 2002 and 2015 were included. We investigated different indicators at KRT initiation, which are as follows: KRT modality (dialysis vs. pre-emptive transplantation), late referral to a nephrologist, and dialysis modality (hemodialysis [HD] vs. peritoneal dialysis [PD], urgent vs. planned start of dialysis, use of catheter vs. use of fistula for HD vascular access). An ecological index (European Deprivation Index [EDI]) was used as a proxy for social deprivation. Results: A total of 1115 patients were included (males 59%, median age at dialysis 14.4 years, glomerular/vascular diseases 36.8%). The most deprived group represented 38.7% of the patients, suggesting pediatric patients with ESKD come from a more socially deprived background. The most deprived group was more likely to initiate KRT with dialysis versus kidney transplantation. Among patients on HD, the odds of starting treatment in emergency with a catheter was >2-fold higher for the most deprived compared with the least deprived children (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.35, 95% CI 1.16-4.78). Conclusion: Children from the most deprived area have lower access to pre-emptive transplantation, have lower access to PD, tend to be late referred to a nephrologist, and have more urgent initiation of HD with a catheter.

Prediction models for living organ transplantation are poorly developed, reported, and validated: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and critically appraise risk prediction models for living donor solid organ transplant counselling. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically reviewed articles describing the development or validation of prognostic risk prediction models about living donor solid organ (kidney and liver) transplantation indexed in Medline until April 4, 2021. Models were eligible if intended to predict, at transplant counselling, any outcome occurring after transplantation or donation in recipients or donors. Duplicate study selection, data extraction, assessment for risk of bias and quality of reporting was done using the CHARMS checklist, PRISMA recommendations, PROBAST tool, and TRIPOD Statement. RESULTS: We screened 4691 titles and included 49 studies describing 68 models (35 kidney, 33 liver transplantation). We identified 49 new risk prediction models and 19 external validations of existing models. Most models predicted recipients outcomes (n = 38, 75%), e.g., kidney graft loss (29%), or mortality of liver transplant recipients (55%). Many new models (n = 46, 94%) and external validations (n = 17, 89%) had a high risk of bias because of methodological weaknesses. The quality of reporting was generally poor. CONCLUSION: We advise against applying poorly developed, reported, or validated prediction models. Future studies could validate or update the few identified methodologically appropriate models.

Preemptive Kidney Transplantation Is Associated With Transplantation Outcomes in Children: Results From the French Kidney Replacement Therapy Registry.

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplantation (KT) is the optimal treatment for children with end-stage kidney disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of preemptive kidney transplantation (PKT) and of pretransplant dialysis duration on graft survival among French pediatric kidney transplant recipients. METHODS: We analyzed all first pediatric kidney-only transplantations performed in France between 1993 and 2012. A Cox multivariable model was used to investigate the association of PKT and pretransplant dialysis time with the hazard of graft failure defined as death, return to dialysis, or retransplant, whichever occurred first. RESULTS: Patients (n = 1911) were included, of which 380 (19.8%) received a PKT. Median time of follow-up was 7.0 y. PKT was associated with a 55% reduction of the hazard of graft failure at any time after KT compared with patients transplanted after dialysis (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.62), after adjustment for recipient sex and age, primary kidney disease, donor age and type (living or deceased donor), number of HLA mismatches, cold ischemia time, and year of transplantation. A reduction of the hazard of graft failure was found in PKT whatever the compared duration of dialysis, even when <6 mo and whatever the dialysis modality. Results were similar in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In France, PKT among pediatric patients is associated with a better graft survival when compared with KT after dialysis, even when <6 mo. Based on these findings, we suggest that PKT should be considered as the treatment of choice for children with end-stage kidney disease.

Time-varying associations between an exposure history and a subsequent health outcome: a landmark approach to identify critical windows.

BACKGROUND: Long-term behavioral and health risk factors constitute a primary focus of research on the etiology of chronic diseases. Yet, identifying critical time-windows during which risk factors have the strongest impact on disease risk is challenging. To assess the trajectory of association of an exposure history with an outcome, the weighted cumulative exposure index (WCIE) has been proposed, with weights reflecting the relative importance of exposures at different times. However, WCIE is restricted to a complete observed error-free exposure whereas exposures are often measured with intermittent missingness and error. Moreover, it rarely explores exposure history that is very distant from the outcome as usually sought in life-course epidemiology. METHODS: We extend the WCIE methodology to (i) exposures that are intermittently measured with error, and (ii) contexts where the exposure time-window precedes the outcome time-window using a landmark approach. First, the individual exposure history up to the landmark time is estimated using a mixed model that handles missing data and error in exposure measurement, and the predicted complete error-free exposure history is derived. Then the WCIE methodology is applied to assess the trajectory of association between the predicted exposure history and the health outcome collected after the landmark time. In our context, the health outcome is a longitudinal marker analyzed using a mixed model. RESULTS: A simulation study first demonstrates the correct inference obtained with this approach. Then, applied to the Nurses' Health Study (19,415 women) to investigate the association between body mass index history (collected from midlife) and subsequent cognitive decline (evaluated after age 70), the method identified two major critical windows of association: long before the first cognitive evaluation (roughly 24 to 12 years), higher levels of BMI were associated with poorer cognition. In contrast, adjusted for the whole history, higher levels of BMI became associated with better cognition in the last years prior to the first cognitive interview, thus reflecting reverse causation (changes in exposure due to underlying disease). CONCLUSIONS: This approach, easy to implement, provides a flexible tool for studying complex dynamic relationships and identifying critical time windows while accounting for exposure measurement errors.

Exposure to airborne cadmium and breast cancer stage, grade and histology at diagnosis: findings from the E3N cohort study.

Molecular studies suggest that cadmium due to its estrogenic properties, might play a role in breast cancer (BC) progression. However epidemiological evidence is limited. This study explored the association between long-term exposure to airborne cadmium and risk of BC by stage, grade of differentiation, and histological types at diagnosis. A nested case-control study of 4401 cases and 4401 matched controls was conducted within the French E3N cohort. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based metric demonstrated to reliably characterize long-term environmental exposures was employed to evaluate airborne exposure to cadmium. Multivariable adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. There was no relationship between cadmium exposure and stage of BC. Also, no association between cadmium exposure and grade of differentiation of BC was observed. However, further analyses by histological type suggested a positive association between cadmium and risk of invasive tubular carcinoma (ITC) BC [ORQ5 vs Q1 = 3.4 (95% CI 1.1-10.7)]. The restricted cubic spline assessment suggested a dose-response relationship between cadmium and ITC BC subtype. Our results do not support the hypothesis that airborne cadmium exposure may play a role in advanced BC risk, but suggest that cadmium may be associated with an increased risk of ITC.

Impact of Model Choice When Studying the Relationship Between Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Stroke Recurrence.

[Figure: see text].

Long-term atmospheric exposure to PCB153 and breast cancer risk in a case-control study nested in the French E3N cohort from 1990 to 2011.

BACKGROUND: Although the genetic and hormonal risk factors of breast cancer are well identified, they cannot fully explain the occurrence of all cases. Epidemiological and experimental studies have suggested that exposure to environmental pollutants, especially those with potential estrogenic properties, as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) may have a role in breast cancer development. Being the most abundantly detected in human tissues and in the environment, congener 153 (PCB153) is widely used in epidemiological studies as indicator for total PCBs exposure. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the association between cumulative atmospheric exposure to PCB153 and breast cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 5222 cases and 5222 matched controls nested within the French E3N cohort from 1990 to 2011. Annual atmospheric PCB153 concentrations were simulated with the deterministic chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) and were assigned to women using their geocoded residential history. Their cumulative PCB153 exposure was calculated for each woman from their cohort inclusion to their index date. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) associated with cumulative PCB153 exposure and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using multivariate conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: Overall, our results showed a statistically significant linear increase in breast cancer risk related to cumulative atmospheric exposure to PCB153 as a continuous variable (adjusted OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.08-1.31, for an increment of one standard deviation among controls (55 pg/m3)). Among women who became postmenopausal during follow-up, the association remained statistically significant (adjusted OR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09-1.39). In analyses by hormone receptors status, the positive association remained significant only for ER-positive breast cancer (adjusted OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.05-1.33). DISCUSSION: This study is the first to have estimated the impact of atmospheric exposure to PCB153 on breast cancer risk. Our results showed a statistically significant increase in breast cancer risk, which may be limited to ER-positive breast cancer. These results warrant confirmation in further independent studies but raise the possibility that exposure to PCB153 increase breast cancer risk.

Risk of breast cancer associated with long-term exposure to benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) air pollution: Evidence from the French E3N cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is an endocrine-disrupting pollutant formed during incomplete combustion of organic materials. It has been recognized as a reproductive and developmental toxicant, however epidemiological evidence of the long-term effect of ambient air BaP on breast cancer (BC) is limited. Thus we evaluated associations between ambient air BaP exposure and risk of BC, overall and according to menopausal status and molecular subtypes (estrogen receptor negative/positive (ER-/ER+) and progesterone receptor negative/positive (PR-/PR+)), stage and grade of differentiation of BC in the French E3N cohort study. METHODS: Within a nested case-control study of 5222 incident BC cases and 5222 matched controls, annual BaP exposure was estimated using a chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) and was assigned to the geocoded residential addresses of participants for each year during the 1990-2011 follow-up period. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Overall, cumulative airborne BaP exposure was significantly associated with the overall risk of BC, for each 1 interquartile range (IQR) increase in the concentration levels of BaP (1.42 ng/m3), the OR = 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04-1.27). However, by menopausal status, the significant positive association remained only in women who underwent menopausal transition (i.e. premenopausal women at inclusion who became postmenopausal at diagnosis), OR per 1 IQR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03-1.40). By hormone receptor status, positive associations were observed for ER+, PR + and ER + PR + BC, with ORs = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.04-1.32), 1.16 (95% CI: 1.01-1.33), and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.01-1.36) per 1 IQR, respectively. There was also a borderline positive association between BaP and grade 3 BC (OR per 1 IQR = 1.15 (95% CI: 0.99-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: We provide evidence of increased risk of BC associated with cumulative BaP exposure, which varied according to menopausal status, hormone receptor status, and grade of differentiation of BC. Our results add further epidemiological evidence to the previous experimental studies suggesting the adverse effects of BaP.

Dynamic prediction models for graft failure in paediatric kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Several models have been proposed to predict kidney graft failure in adult recipients but none in younger recipients. Our objective was to propose a dynamic prediction model for graft failure in young kidney transplant recipients. METHODS: We included 793 kidney transplant recipients waitlisted before the age of 18 years who received a first kidney transplantation before the age of 21 years in France in 2002-13 and survived >90 days with a functioning graft. We used a Cox model including baseline predictors only (sex, age at transplant, primary kidney disease, dialysis duration, donor type and age, human leucocyte antigen matching, cytomegalovirus serostatus, cold ischaemia time and delayed graft function) and two joint models also accounting for post-transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory. Predictive performances were evaluated using a cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) and R2 curves. RESULTS: When predicting the risk of graft failure from any time within the first 7 years after paediatric kidney transplantation, the predictions for the following 3 or 5 years were accurate and much better with the joint models than with the Cox model (AUC ranged from 0.83 to 0.91 for the joint models versus 0.56 to 0.64 for the Cox model). CONCLUSION: Accounting for post-transplant eGFR trajectory strongly increased the accuracy of graft failure prediction in young kidney transplant recipients.

Clinical Trial Emulation by Matching Time-dependent Propensity Scores: The Example of Estimating Impact of Kidney Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: No study to our knowledge has examined the use of observational data to emulate a clinical trial whereby patients at the time of kidney transplant proposal are randomly assigned to an awaiting transplantation or transplantation group. The main methodologic issue is definition of the baseline for dialyzed patients assigned to awaiting transplantation, resulting in the inability to use common propensity score-based approaches. We aimed to use time-dependent propensity score to better appraise the benefit of transplantation. METHODS: We studied 23,231 patients included in the French registry and on a transplant waiting list from 2005 to 2016. The main outcome was time to death. By matching on time-dependent propensity score, we obtained 10,646 pairs of recipients (transplantation group) versus comparable patients remaining on dialysis (awaiting transplantation group). RESULTS: The baseline exposure, that is, pseudo-randomization, was matching time. Median follow-up time was 3.5 years. At 10 years' follow-up, the restricted mean survival time was 8.8 years [95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.7, 8.9] in the transplantation group versus 8.2 years (95% CI = 8.1, 8.3) in the awaiting transplantation group. The corresponding life expectancy gain was 6.8 months (95% CI = 5.5, 8.2), and this corresponded to one prevented death at 10 years for 13 transplantations. CONCLUSIONS: Our study has estimated the life expectancy gain due to kidney transplantation. It confirms transplantation as the best treatment for end-stage renal disease. Furthermore, we demonstrated that this simple method should also be considered for estimating marginal effects of time-dependent exposures.

Chronic Low-Dose Exposure to Xenoestrogen Ambient Air Pollutants and Breast Cancer Risk: XENAIR Protocol for a Case-Control Study Nested Within the French E3N Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most frequent cancer in women in industrialized countries. Lifestyle and environmental factors, particularly endocrine-disrupting pollutants, have been suggested to play a role in breast cancer risk. Current epidemiological studies, although not fully consistent, suggest a positive association of breast cancer risk with exposure to several International Agency for Research on Cancer Group 1 air-pollutant carcinogens, such as particulate matter, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), dioxins, Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), and cadmium. However, epidemiological studies remain scarce and inconsistent. It has been proposed that the menopausal status could modify the relationship between pollutants and breast cancer and that the association varies with hormone receptor status. OBJECTIVE: The XENAIR project will investigate the association of breast cancer risk (overall and by hormone receptor status) with chronic exposure to selected air pollutants, including particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), BaP, dioxins, PCB-153, and cadmium. METHODS: Our research is based on a case-control study nested within the French national E3N cohort of 5222 invasive breast cancer cases identified during follow-up from 1990 to 2011, and 5222 matched controls. A questionnaire was sent to all participants to collect their lifetime residential addresses and information on indoor pollution. We will assess these exposures using complementary models of land-use regression, atmospheric dispersion, and regional chemistry-transport (CHIMERE) models, via a Geographic Information System. Associations with breast cancer risk will be modeled using conditional logistic regression models. We will also study the impact of exposure on DNA methylation and interactions with genetic polymorphisms. Appropriate statistical methods, including Bayesian modeling, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis, will be used to assess the impact of multipollutant exposure. The fraction of breast cancer cases attributable to air pollution will be estimated. RESULTS: The XENAIR project will contribute to current knowledge on the health effects of air pollution and identify and understand environmental modifiable risk factors related to breast cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: The results will provide relevant evidence to governments and policy-makers to improve effective public health prevention strategies on air pollution. The XENAIR dataset can be used in future efforts to study the effects of exposure to air pollution associated with other chronic conditions. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/15167.